Generic Metrics for the Estimation of the Prediction Accuracy of Aircraft to Aircraft Conflicts by a Strategic Conflict Probe Tool

An aircraft conflict probe is a strategic tool used by the air traffic controller to predict aircraft flight paths and to identify future conflicts. The FAA has designated the strategic conflict probe as a core function for the future ground based systems required for “Free Flight”. With these systems under development, there is a need for a generic set of metrics to quantify the performance of the conflict probe. This paper presents definitions of the two fundamental measures of the conflict prediction accuracy, missed alert and false alert probabilities. These fundamental probabilities are expanded upon to define a conflict prediction sensitivity measure, referred to as the sharpness metric, and specific examples on how the sharpness measure can be applied are presented.